Trading The MACD Divergence

by Boris Schlossberg,
FREE Forex Report The 5 Things That Move The Market (Contact Author | Biography)

Email Article

Feedback

Reprints

Filed Under: Forex

Moving average convergence divergence (MACD), invented in 1979 by Gerald Appeal, is one of the most popular technical indicators in trading. MACD is appreciated by traders the world over for its simplicity and flexibility because it can be used either as a trend or momentum indicator.

Trading divergence is a popular way to use MACD histogram (which we explain below), but, unfortunately, the divergence trade is not very accurate - it fails more than it succeeds. To explore what may be a more logical method of trading MACD divergence, we look at using the MACD histogram for both trade entry and trade exit signals (instead of only entry), and how currency traders are uniquely positioned to take advantage of such a strategy.

MACD: An Overview
The concept behind MACD is fairly straightforward. Essentially, it calculates the difference between an instrument's 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages (EMA). Of the two moving averages that make up MACD, the 12-day EMA, is obviously the faster one, while the 26-day is slower. In the calculation of their values, both moving averages use the closing prices of whatever period is measured. On the MACD chart, a nine-day EMA of MACD itself is plotted as well, and it acts as a trigger for buy and sell decisions. MACD generates a bullish signal when it moves above its own nine-day EMA, and it sends a sell sign when it moves below its nine-day EMA.

The MACD histogram is an elegant visual representation of the difference between MACD and its nine-day EMA. The histogram is positive when MACD is above its nine-day EMA and negative when MACD is below its nine-day EMA. If prices are rising, the histogram grows larger as the speed of the price movement accelerates, and contracts as price movement decelerates. The same principle works in reverse as prices are falling. See Figure 1 for a good example of a MACD histogram in action.

Figure 1: MACD histogram. As price action (top part of the screen) accelerates to the downside, the MACD histogram (in the lower part of the screen) makes new lows

Source: FXTrek Intellicharts

The MACD histogram is the main reason why so many traders rely on this indicator to measure momentum, because it responds to the speed of price movement. Indeed, most traders use the MACD indicator more frequently to gauge the strength of the price move than to determine the direction of a trend.

Trading Divergence
As we mentioned earlier, trading divergence is a classic way in which the MACD histogram is used. One of the most common setups is to find chart points at which price makes a new swing high or a new swing low but the MACD histogram does not, indicating a divergence between price and momentum. Figure 2 illustrates a typical divergence trade.

Figure 2: a typical (negative) divergence trade using a MACD histogram. At the right-hand circle on the price chart, the price movements make a new swing high, but at the corresponding circled point on the MACD histogram, the MACD histogram is unable to exceed its previous high of 0.3307. (The histogram reached this high at the point indicated by the lower left-hand circle.) The divergence is a signal that the price is about to reverse at the new high, and as such, it is a signal for the trader to enter into a short position.

Source: Source: FXTrek Intellicharts

Unfortunately, the divergence trade is not very accurate - it fails more times than it succeeds. Prices frequently have several final bursts up or down that trigger stops and force traders out of position just before the move actually makes a sustained turn and the trade becomes profitable. Figure 3 demonstrates a typical divergence fakeout, which has frustrated scores of traders over the years.

Figure 3: A typical divergence fakeout. Strong divergence is illustrated by the right circle (at the bottom of the chart) by the vertical line, but traders who set their stops at swing highs would have been taken out of the trade before it turned in their direction.

Source: Source: FXTrek Intellicharts

One of the reasons that traders often lose with this set up is they enter a trade on a signal from the MACD indicator but exit it based on the move in price. Since the MACD histogram is a derivative of price and is not price itself, this approach is, in effect, the trading version of mixing apples and oranges.

Using the MACD Histogram for Both Entry and Exit
To resolve the inconsistency between entry and exit, a trader can use the MACD histogram for both trade entry and trade exit signals. To do so, the trader trading the negative divergence takes a partial short position at the initial point of divergence, but instead of setting the stop at the nearest swing high based on price, he or she instead stops out the trade only if the high of the MACD histogram exceeds its previous swing high, indicating that momentum is actually accelerating and the trader is truly wrong on the trade. If, on the other hand, the MACD histogram does not generate a new swing high, the trader then adds to his or her initial position, continually achieving a higher average price for the short.

Currency traders are uniquely positioned to take advantage of this strategy because with this strategy, the larger the position, the larger potential gains once the price reverses - and in FX, you can implement this strategy with any size of position and not have to worry about influencing price. (Traders can execute transactions as large as 100,000 units or as little as 1,000 units for the same typical spread of three to five points in the major pairs.)

In effect, this strategy requires the trader to average up as prices temporarily move against him or her. This, however, is typically not considered a good strategy. Many trading books have derisively dubbed such a technique as "adding to your losers". However, in this case the trader has a logical reason for doing so - the MACD histogram has shown divergence, which indicates that momentum is waning and price may soon turn. In effect, the trader is trying to call the bluff between the seeming strength of immediate price action and MACD readings that hint at weakness ahead. Still, a well-prepared trader using the advantages of fixed costs in FX, by properly averaging up the trade, can withstand the temporary drawdowns until price turns in his or her favor. Figure 4 illustrates this strategy in action.

Figure 4: The chart indicates where price makes successive highs but the MACD histogram does not - foreshadowing the decline that eventually comes. By averaging up his or her short, the trader eventually earns a handsome profit as we see the price making a sustained reversal after the final point of divergence.

Source: Source: FXTrek Intellicharts

Conclusion
Like life, trading is rarely black and white. Some rules that traders agree on blindly, such as never adding to a loser, can be successfully broken to achieve extraordinary profits. However, a logical, methodical approach for violating these important money management rules needs to be established before attempting to capture gains. In the case of the MACD histogram, trading the indicator instead of the price offers a new way to trade an old idea - divergence. Applying this method to the FX market, which allows effortless scaling up of positions, makes this idea even more intriguing to day traders and position traders alike.

by Boris Schlossberg (Contact Author | Biography)

Boris Schlossberg serves as director of currency research at GFT Forex. He is a weekly contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and a regular commentator for Bloomberg radio and television. His daily currency research is widely quoted by Reuters, Dow Jones and Agence France Presse newswires and appears in numerous newspapers worldwide. Schlossberg has written for publications like SFO magazine, Active Trader and Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. He is also the author of "Technical Analysis of the Currency Market" and the co-author of "Millionaire Traders" with Kathy Lien.

Filed Under: Forex

Moving Average MACD Combo

by Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg (Contact Author | Biography)

Email Article

Feedback

Reprints

Filed Under: Forex

In theory, trend trading is easy. All you need to do is keep on buying when you see the price rising higher and keep on selling when you see it breaking lower. In practice, however, it is far more difficult to do successfully. The greatest fear for trend traders is getting into a trend too late, that is, at the point of exhaustion. Yet despite these difficulties, trend trading is probably one of the most popular styles of trading because when a trend develops, whether on a short-term or long-term basis, it can last for hours, days and even months.

Here we'll cover a strategy that will help you get in on a trend at the right time while at the same time giving us clear entry and exit levels. This strategy is called the moving average MACD combo. (For background reading, see A Primer On The MACD.)

Overview
The MACD combo strategy involves using two sets of moving averages (MA) for the setup:

50 simple moving average (SMA) - The signal line that triggers the trades.
100 SMA - Gives a clear trend signal.

The actual time period of the SMA depends on the chart that you use. This strategy works best on hourly and daily charts. The main premise of the strategy is to buy or sell only when the price crosses the moving averages in the direction of the trend. (To learn more, read the Moving Averages tutorial.)

Rules for a Long Trade

Wait for the currency to trade above both the 50 SMA and 100 SMA.
Once the price has broken above the closest SMA by 10 pips or more, enter long if MACD has crossed to positive within the last five bars, otherwise wait for the next MACD signal.
Set the initial stop at a five-bar low from the entry.
Exit half of the position at two times risk; move the stop to breakeven.
Exit the second half when the price breaks below the 50 SMA by 10 pips.

Rules for a Short Trade
Wait for the currency to trade below both the 50 SMA and 100 SMA.

Once the price has broken below the closest SMA by 10 pips or more, enter short if MACD has crossed to negative within the last five bars; otherwise, wait for the next MACD signal.
Set the initial stop at five-bar high from entry.
Exit half of the position at two times risk; move the stop to breakeven.
Exit the remaining position when the price breaks back above the 50 SMA by 10 pips. Do not take the trade if the price is simply trading between the 50 SMA and 100 SMA.

Long Trades
Our first example in Figure 1 is for the EUR/USD on an hourly chart. The trade sets up on March 13, 2006, when the price crosses above both the 50-hour SMA and 100-hour SMA. However, we do not enter immediately because MACD crossed to the upside more than five bars ago, and we prefer to wait for the second MACD upside cross to get in. The reason we adhere to this rule is because we do not want to buy when the momentum has already been to the upside for a while and may therefore exhaust itself.

The second trigger occurs a few hours later at 1.1945. We enter the position and place our initial stop at the five-bar low from entry, which is 1.1917. Our first target is two times our risk of 28 pips (1.1945-1.1917), or 56 pips, putting our target at 1.2001. The target gets hit at 11 a.m. EST the next day. We then move our stop to breakeven and look to exit the second half of the position when the price trades below the 50-hour SMA by 10 pips. This occurs on March 20, 2006 at 10 a.m. EST, at which time the second half of the position is closed at 1.2165 for a total trade profit of 138 pips.

Figure 1: Moving Average MACD Combo, EUR/USD

Source: FXtrek Intellichart

Positive and Negative Oscillations
Why can't we just trade the MACD cross from positive to negative? You can see by looking at the EUR/USD in Figure 2 that multiple positive and negative oscillations occurred between March 13 and March 15, 2006. However, most of the downside and even some of the upside signals if taken, would have been stopped out before making any meaningful profits.

Why can't we just trade the moving average cross without the MACD? Take a look at Figure 2. If we took the moving average crossover signal to the downside when the MACD was positive, the trade would have turned into a loser.

Figure 2

Source: FXtrek Intellichart

The next example, shown in Figure 3, is for USD/JPY on a daily time frame. The trade sets up on September 16, 2005, when the price crosses above both the 50-day and 100-day SMA. We take the signal immediately because the MACD has crossed within five bars, giving us an entry level of approximately 110.95. We place our initial stop at the five-bar low of 108.98 and our first target at two times risk, which comes to 114.89. The price is hit three weeks later on October 13, 2005, at which time we move our stop to breakeven and look to exit the second half of the position when the price trades below the 50-day SMA by 10 pips. This occurs on December 14, 2005, at 117.43, resulting in a total trade profit of 521 pips.

One thing to keep in mind when using daily charts: although the profits can be larger, the risk is also higher. Our stop was close to 200 pips away from our entry. Of course, our profit was 521 pips, which turned out to be more than two times our risk. Furthermore, traders using the daily charts to identify setups need to be far more patient with their trades because the position can remain open for months.

Figure 3: Moving Average MACD Combo, USD/JPY

Source: FXtrek Intellichart

Short Trades
On the short side, we take a look at the AUD/USD on hourly charts back on March 16, 2006. The currency pair first range trades between the 50- and 100-hour SMA. We wait for the price to break below both the 50- and 100-hour moving averages and check to see whether MACD has been negative less than five bars ago. We see that it was, so we go short when the price moves 10 pips lower than the closest SMA, which in this case is the 100-hour SMA. Our entry price is 0.7349. We place our initial stop at the highest high of the last five bars or 0.7376. This places our initial risk at 27 pips. Our first target is two times the risk, which comes to 0.7295. The target gets triggered seven hours later, at which time we move our stop on the second half to breakeven and look to exit it when the price trades above the 50-hour SMA by 10 pips. This occurs on March 22, 2006, when the price reaches 0.7193, earning us a total of 105 pips on the trade. This is definitely an attractive return given the fact that we only risked 27 pips on the trade.

Figure 4: Moving Average MACD Combo, AUD/USD

Source: FXtrek Intellichart

From a daily perspective, we take a look at another short example in EUR/JPY shown in Figure 5. As you can see, the daily examples date farther back because once a clear trend has formed, it can last for a long time. If it didn't, the currency would instead move into a range-bound scenario where the prices would simply fluctuate between the two moving averages.

On April 25, 2005, we saw EUR/JPY break below the 50-day and 100-day SMA. We check to see that the MACD is also negative, confirming that momentum has moved to the downside. We enter into a short position at 10 pips below the closest moving average (100-day SMA) or 137.76. The initial stop is placed at the highest high of the past five bars, which is 140.47. This means that we are risking 271 pips. Our first target is two times risk (542 pips) or 132.34. The first target is hit a little more than a month later on June 2, 2005. At this time, we move our stop on the remaining half to breakeven and look to exit it when the price trades above the 50-day SMA by 10 pips. The moving average is breached to the top side on June 30, 2005, and we exit at 134.21. We exit the rest of the position at that time for a total trade profit of 448 pips.

Figure 5: Moving Average MACD Combo, EUR/JPY

Source: FXtrek Intellichart

When the Strategy Fails
This strategy is far from foolproof. As with many trend-trading strategies, it works best on currencies or time frames that trend well. Therefore, it is difficult to implement this strategy on currencies that are typically range bound, like EUR/GBP.

Figure 6 shows an example of the strategy's failure. The price breaks below the 50- and 100-hour SMA in EUR/GBP on March 7, 2006, by 10 pips. The MACD is negative at the time, so we go short 10 pips below the moving average at 0.6840. The stop is placed at the highest high of the past five bars, which is 0.6860. This makes our risk 20 pips, which means that our first take-profit level is two times the risk, or 0.6800.

EUR/GBP continues to sell-off, but not strongly enough to reach our take-profit level. The low in the move before the currency pair eventually reverses back above the 50-hour SMA is 0.6839. The reversal eventually extends to our stop of 0.6860 and we end up losing 20 pips on the trade.

Figure 6: Moving Average MACD Combo, EUR/GBP

Source: FXtrek Intellicharts

Conclusion
The moving average MACD combo strategy can help you get in on a trend at the most profitable time. However, traders implementing this strategy should make sure they do so only on currency pairs that typically trend. This strategy works particularly well on the majors. Traders should also check the strength of the breakdown below the moving average at the point of entry. In the failed trade shown in Figure 6, had we looked at the average directional index (ADX) at that time, we would have seen that the ADX was very low, indicating that the breakdown probably did not generate enough momentum to continue the move.

by Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg (Contact Author | Biography)

Boris Schlossberg runs BKTraderFX, a forex advisory service and is the senior currency strategist at Forex Capital Markets in New York, one of the largest retail forex market makers in the world. He is a frequent commentator for Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC and Dow Jones CBS Marketwatch. His book, "Millionaire Traders" (John Wiley and Sons) is available on Amazon.com, where he also hosts a blog on all things trading.

Kathy Lien is an internationally published author and the director of currency research at GFT. Her trading books include: "Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit form Market Swings" (2005), "High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market" E-Book (2006) and "Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game" (2007). Lien also runs an FX Signal Service, BKForex Advisor, with Boris Schlossberg - one of the few investment advisory letters focusing strictly on the 2 trillion/day FX market.